New Delhi: India’s campaign to eliminate left-wing extremism (LWE) is showing measurable progress. Data from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) indicates that the number of districts classified as “most affected” by Naxal or LWE violence has declined from 12 to just 3. Nationwide, LWE-affected districts have reduced from 18 to 11. These figures suggest the decades-old insurgency may be nearing its final phase — though experts warn the journey is not yet over.
What the Data Shows
As of October 2025, only three districts — Bijapur, Sukma, and Narayanpur in Chhattisgarh — remain in the “most affected” category.
According to MHA data:
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Since 2014, LWE-related violent incidents have fallen by around 70%,
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Casualties among security forces and civilians have significantly decreased.
The government’s strategy has combined security operations with intensive development: building roads, setting up telecom towers, opening bank branches and post offices in previously inaccessible “dark zones.”
Hundreds of cadres have surrendered, supported by reintegration schemes. The MHA notes several hundred surrenders in recent years.
Why the Shift? Two-Pronged Strategy
1. Security Operations and Denial of Safe Havens
Forward operating bases, night-landing helipads, improved intelligence-sharing, and restricting insurgent mobility across forest belts have weakened Naxal operational capabilities.
2. Development and Community Integration
The government’s strategy is based on the idea that insurgency thrives where governance is weak. Efforts include:
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Skill training programs
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Banking and digital access
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Infrastructure creation
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Inclusion-based political messaging
Together, these have pushed Naxalism out of many traditional strongholds.
A “Golden Hour” for Youth and Reintegration
The government states that youth in former Naxal areas are increasingly joining mainstream institutions through jobs, skill centres, better connectivity, and public outreach.
For example:
₹495 crore was allocated across 48 affected districts for Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) and skill development centres.
The old “Red Corridor” is now being reframed as a “growth corridor.”
Caveats — Why “Extinction” Is Still Premature
Despite positive momentum, analysts urge caution:
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Residual pockets remain: The three most-affected districts continue to pose operational challenges. Full eradication by March 2026 is the official goal.
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Development gaps create revival risks: As the Home Minister noted, the movement could revive “if we fail to provide schools, drinking water, roads and electricity.”
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Deep socio-economic grievances remain: Land alienation, tribal rights violations, exploitative mining, and social exclusion remain underlying triggers.
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Sustainability is key: Surrenders must lead to real livelihoods; infrastructure must be maintained; community trust must be rebuilt.
What to Watch Going Ahead
Key indicators to monitor:
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Whether the 31 March 2026 target is met and how “Naxalism-free” is defined.
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Long-term reintegration — whether surrendered cadres gain stable jobs, housing, and education.
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Improvements in development indicators (literacy, health, jobs) in former insurgency zones.
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Whether historically affected states (Odisha, Jharkhand, Maharashtra) maintain control or see localised revival.
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How the ideological vacuum is filled — through political participation or through new forms of unrest.
Conclusion
India appears to be at a significant turning point in its fight against left-wing extremism. With a sharp reduction in the number of severely affected districts and extensive security and development operations underway, the insurgency is undeniably weakened.
However, declaring Naxalism “extinct” is premature. The March 2026 deadline is close, and success will require more than suppressing violence — it demands lasting transformation in remote tribal regions long deprived of governance.
The real test is whether young people in these areas see meaningful alternatives to armed rebellion — and choose them. The coming months will determine whether this decades-old conflict is truly moving from suppression to sustainable transformation.
